— Autumn grain acreage has remained stable while increasing, and crop conditions are generally favorable.

　　On August 26, a grain farmer in Xijiang Village, Xixi Township, Yushui District, Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province, operated a combine harvester to reap mid-season rice. According to reports, Yushui District has introduced a series of policies and measures to boost grain production, significantly boosting farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain; the district’s total area planted with rice has reached 735,200 mu. Photo by Liao Haijin (China Economic Visual).

　　Autumn grain accounts for three-quarters of the country’s total annual grain production, making it pivotal to achieving a bumper harvest for the year. According to agricultural situation reports from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, this year’s autumn grain harvest is underpinned by solid foundations: on the one hand, the area planted with autumn crops has expanded, and on the other, crop conditions remain generally favorable. Provided there are no major disasters in the latter stages, the year is expected to conclude as another bountiful harvest. With the gradual arrival of autumn grain on the market, China’s grain market is projected to remain broadly stable.

　　Affected by the COVID‑19 pandemic, flooding disasters, and spillover effects from volatile international grain prices, China’s grain market has recently experienced temporary fluctuations, drawing widespread attention across society. At a press conference held on August 26 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Tang Ke, Director-General of the Department of Market and Informationization, stated that overall conditions for autumn grain production remain favorable, and the trend of steady and improving grain output has not changed. At present, domestic grain prices lack the conditions for a substantial increase; as autumn harvests are gradually brought to market, China’s grain market is expected to remain broadly stable.

　　There is no need to worry about food supplies.

　　Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has continued to strengthen monitoring of grain prices and track and analyze market supply-and-demand dynamics. Data show that China’s grain prices are generally stable with upward trends, though price movements vary across grain varieties and differ at different stages of the supply chain. In July, the average wholesale price of rice, wheat, and corn was 122.4 yuan per 50 kilograms, up 0.2% month-on-month and 1.7% year-on-year. Among these, rice prices recorded the smallest increase, followed by wheat, while corn prices rose more noticeably; price hikes were particularly pronounced at the procurement and wholesale levels.

　　As a basic necessity, food consumption is relatively inelastic, typically neither declining sharply nor surging significantly from one year to the next. Tang Ke noted that this year, amid the pandemic, household consumption of staple grains has increased while out-of-home consumption has decreased, resulting in only modest changes in overall consumption. Meanwhile, as epidemic control continues to improve, demand for corn used in animal feed and for deep-processing has shown strong recovery, though the actual increase in demand remains fairly moderate. Looking at earlier trends, although some consumers and traders have engaged in stockpiling, leading to short-term fluctuations in market demand, these developments have not altered the underlying trajectory of grain consumption. Looking ahead, China’s grain production and supply are fully assured, providing a solid foundation for maintaining stable grain prices under domestic leadership. Coupled with ample global supplies and low price levels for major agricultural commodities such as corn and soybeans, domestic grain prices lack the conditions for a substantial rise.

　　“Against the backdrop of the global COVID‑19 pandemic, uncertainty in both domestic and international agricultural markets has increased. It is understandable that some consumers are stocking up on grain and edible oils out of precaution, while certain traders and farmers are building up their inventories in anticipation of favorable market conditions later on. However, it is crucial to avoid herd behavior—both to prevent waste caused by inadequate storage and to guard against losses stemming from subsequent price fluctuations and declines,” said Tang Ke. He added that China currently maintains ample grain reserves, boasts high processing and conversion capacity, and possesses strong capabilities for market regulation and emergency supply assurance. Coupled with a well‑developed logistics and distribution network, the domestic market for grain and edible oil products enjoys a robust supply, with prices remaining broadly stable. Therefore, consumers have no need to feel unduly anxious or engage in panic buying.

　　This year is still expected to be a bumper harvest.

　　Grain production is divided into three seasons throughout the year, and so far, both summer grain and early-season rice have enjoyed bumper harvests. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, this year’s summer grain output reached 285.6 billion jin, an increase of 2.42 billion jin; early-season rice output totaled 54.6 billion jin, up by 2.06 billion jin.

　　It is worth noting that autumn grain accounts for three-quarters of the country’s total annual grain output, making it pivotal to achieving a bumper harvest for the year. According to agricultural situation reports from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, this year’s autumn‑grain acreage has remained stable while expanding slightly. Despite severe localized droughts and floods, post‑disaster production recovery has been prompt and effective, and overall crop conditions are favorable. The steady, improving trend in grain production remains unchanged. Provided there are no major disasters later in the season, the year is likely to end on a bountiful note.

　　“This year’s autumn grain harvest is on a solid footing, based primarily on two key factors: the area planted with autumn crops has increased, and crop conditions are generally normal,” said Pan Wenbo, Director-General of the Department of Crop Production at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

　　Land area is the foundation of grain production. Preliminary estimates indicate that this year’s autumn grain acreage stands at 1.284 billion mu, an increase of more than 5 million mu. Pan Wenbo stated that this expansion is primarily attributable to two factors: first, favorable spring rainfall and good soil moisture conditions have led to an expansion in planting on some areas that were previously prone to drought; second, farmers anticipate rising grain prices in the later stages, which has boosted their enthusiasm to increase sown acreage.

　　In terms of crop development, major autumn‑grain-producing provinces such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shandong, and Henan are reporting favorable growth. Regionally, the bulk of autumn grain is grown in Northeast China, where corn is currently filling out well, soybeans have begun to form pods, and rice has already headed; a bountiful harvest is anticipated. In the Huanghuaihai and Northwest regions, autumn grain is predominantly corn, cultivated in rainfed areas that have not suffered from adverse weather, resulting in robust growth. In the Southwest and South China, rice accounts for the majority of autumn‑grain production, with overall growth remaining normal.

　　“July 15th determines drought or flood; August 15th determines the harvest.” Pan Wenbo said that with roughly 40 days remaining until the autumn grain harvest, this period is both a critical phase for shaping yield and a time when disasters are most likely to occur. Securing a bumper autumn grain harvest will require overcoming challenges such as autumn droughts, typhoons, early frosts, cold‑dew winds, and pest and disease outbreaks. Moving forward, we will prioritize disaster prevention and mitigation to ensure a bountiful harvest, making every effort to achieve a strong autumn grain yield and keep this year’s total grain output above 1.3 trillion jin, thus securing a prosperous harvest in a moderately prosperous year for both grain production and agriculture.

　　Market-based procurement of summer-harvest wheat remains robust.

　　Following the arrival of this year’s summer‑harvest wheat on the market, some large-scale grain producers have been reluctant to sell and are holding onto their stocks, resulting in a slower pace of wheat procurement compared with last year. So what is the current situation regarding wheat purchasing and sales in China, and is a sharp price increase likely in the near term? In response, Tang Ke stated that there is absolutely no need to worry about wheat supply, and wheat prices are not expected to rise persistently.

　　On the one hand, China has enjoyed consecutive years of abundant wheat production. Since 2015, output has remained stable at over 130 million tonnes, sufficient to meet domestic consumption and maintaining a basic balance between supply and demand, with surpluses in bumper years.

　　On the other hand, wheat stocks are ample, with current inventories roughly equivalent to one year’s consumption; in particular, policy‑driven grain reserves remain at a high level, ensuring strong capacity for supply‑demand adjustment.

　　In addition, wheat price movements exhibit distinct phase‑specific patterns. Recently, corn prices have risen sharply, prompting some feed manufacturers to increase their purchases of wheat as a substitute, thereby bolstering bullish market expectations. This, in turn, has reinforced a reluctance among some farmers and traders to sell, further driving up prices. With corn prices now stabilizing, the likelihood of continued gains in wheat prices is limited. Indeed, since August, wheat prices in Shandong and other regions have already ceased rising and are trending toward stability.

　　According to monitoring by the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, as of August 10, major wheat-producing areas had cumulatively purchased 88.1 billion jin of wheat, down 21.2 billion jin from the same period last year. Tang Ke noted that although the volume of wheat purchases has declined compared with last year, it remains broadly in line with the three-year average. At the same time, this year has seen a reduction primarily in policy-driven procurement, while market‑based purchasing has progressed at a generally normal pace, indicating that grain supplies remain relatively ample and that market mechanisms are functioning more effectively. In particular, in recent years, high‑quality, specialty wheat has continued to expand, with the share of contract‑based purchases for brewing and pastry production rising markedly. The premium pricing associated with superior quality has become increasingly evident, driving robust market‑oriented procurement that now serves as a substitute for government‑directed, policy‑driven purchases.

　　“As the reform of the grain procurement and storage system advances, farmers’ market awareness is steadily strengthening, and their grain‑selling patterns are becoming more balanced. When market conditions are favorable, it is entirely reasonable for some farmers to hold off on selling. Of course, we also urge all farmers—especially large-scale grain producers—to closely monitor market trends, avoid blindly following speculative hoarding, and seize the right timing to sell, thereby ensuring both high yields and bountiful harvests,” said Tang Ke.

　　————Article reprinted from the Agricultural Machinery 360 website